Two logicians are trying to earn a fabulous prize as a team. There are three targets, and, to win the prize, each logician must fire a single arrow and hit the same target as the other. Two of the targets are closer but are otherwise indistinguishable; the logicians know they each have a 98 percent chance of hitting either of these targets. The third target is farther away; the logicians know they each have a 70 percent chance of hitting that target.
The logicians can’t cooperate or consult in advance, and they have no knowledge of which target their counterpart is aiming for or whether they are successful. What is the probability they will win the prize?
Here let's fill in some of the gaps in the prompt. Let's assume that the way that the closer targets are indistinguishable is some Rube Goldberg machine such that if an archer shoots an arrow into a tube then through some elaborate Rube Goldberg-esque machine, perhaps with a Plinko like randomizer, there is a fifty percent probability that the arrow will end up hitting target 1, while there is a fifty percent probability that the arrow will end up hitting target 2. So here the interpretation is that the probability of each logical archer getting an arrow into the tube is $98\%.$ So the probability that they both hit the same target it they both aim for the closer tube is is $$\mathbb{P} \{ \text{both arrows in tube} \} \mathbb{P} \{ \text{both arrows in same target} \} = 98 \% \cdot 98 \% \cdot \frac{1}{2} = 48.02\%.$$
On the other hand, the probability that they both hit the same target if they both aim for the further target is $$\mathbb{P} \{ \text{both hit the further target} \} = 70 \% \cdot 70 \% = 49 \%.$$ Since both of the archers are logicians, they both decide to aim for the target with the largest probability of winning, meaning they will both aim at the further target and have a probability of $49\%$ to win the prize.
As before, there are still three targets, but their respective probabilities of being struck have changed. That said, two of the targets remain indistinguishable from each other and have the same probability of being struck. Moreover, all three probabilities are rational.
After doing some mental arithmetic, the logicians realize that it doesn’t matter which target they aim for—their probability of winning the prize is the same no matter what. What is their probability of winning the prize?
Let's assume that the probability of hitting the closer tube is now $p \in \mathbb{Q} \cap [0,1],$ while the probability of hitting the further target is now $q \in \mathbb{Q} \cap [0,1],$ which means by analogy to the above calculations that the probability of hitting the same target if aiming for the closer and further targets are $\frac{1}{2}p^2$ and $q^2,$ respectively. Being excellent logicians the general probability of winning is thus $$\pi (p, q) = \max \left\{ \frac{1}{2} p^2, q^2 \right\}$$ for any $(p,q) \in (\mathbb{Q} \cap [0,1])^2.$ If as the logical archers surmised there is no different in which target they aim for, then we must have that $\frac{1}{2} p^2 = q^2.$ However, since $\sqrt{2}$ is well known to be irrational, we see that the only possible solution to $\frac{1}{2} p^2 - q^2 = 0$ in $( \mathbb{Q} \cap [0,1] )^2$ is $p = q = 0.$ This means, that rather unsportsmanlike the probability of winning the prize is $\pi(0,0)=0$ if (a) the probabilities $p$ and $q$ are rational and (b) it doesn't matter which target to aim at.
Of course, that's not very fun. So if we wanted to drop condition (a) that both probabilities are rational, then we can replace $\frac{1}{2}p^2 - q^2 = 0$ with the linear condition $p - \sqrt{2} q = 0,$ or $p = \sqrt{2} q.$ In this case, we get $\tilde{\pi}(q) = \pi( \sqrt{2} q, q ) = q^2,$ for all $q \in [0, \sqrt{2} / 2 ].$ This gives a maximum probability of winning the prize when it still doesn't matter which target to aim at irrational probabilities are available of $\tilde{\pi}^* = \frac{1}{2}.$



